Edinburgh 2110
Creative: Finlay McIlwraith, 12 November 2023
2023 Climate Futures Prize, Under-18 Winner
Illustration by Holly Brown
Freedom. What does it mean?
Freedom-Noun: The Power to act, speak, and change as one wants without hindrance or restraint.
Freedom is what Carola has been straining towards all their life.
They were free now. They had been free when they were born too. But back then, “freedom was just another word for nothing left to lose.” What good was freedom when they had spent much of their life fighting just to survive? For freedom to be worth something, they had to be able to live, breathe and survive.
They’re OK today. They emerged from under the covers and gazed at the view they’d seen for the past 20 years. Princes Street, Edinburgh. The frontline of the “New Town.” There were bamboo bridges across the loch that separated the new and old towns. They still retained their names from centuries ago, despite being nearly unrecognisable today. The old town was a traditionally packed-out quarter of the town from mediaeval times. Some of the world's first high-rises were built there. It was filled with life, characters and often disease. Narrow closes and wynds led off in unexpected directions, some streets had ten or fifteen passages between them with many a near mystery. The New Town, in contrast, was filled with big, luxurious, Georgian townhouses. It had been built as a conscious effort for the wealthier citizens to escape the overcrowding of the old town in the 18th century. The two locales often seemed diametrically opposed to each other. Some preferred the gritty, traditional edge of the old town, and some the classical grandiose nature of the new.
There had been a loch in the centre of Edinburgh for centuries. It was drained in the 18th century to make way for a park and eventually a train station. Its low-lying nature left it susceptible to flooding, however. It had been too late to stop a chain of sea level rises and melting of the ice caps that reached its peak in the 2020s. Sea level rise hadn’t hit its worst-case scenario, thankfully. However, the damage had been done. In the 2050s Edinburgh city centre, there was continual flooding of the shopping and banking districts. The costs of flood defences and cleanup operations were starting to prove overwhelming.
2055
Edinburgh City Council announces new tax burdens for cleanup
Edinburgh Citizens are to face a new 10% charge on their earnings to help finance the huge cleanup operations needed for the City Centre.
Council leaders denied claims that it was unfair for the city's poorest citizens to be charged the same rates as the city's billionaires. Suggestions that Edinburgh's highest emitting companies should have to bear responsibility have also been unheeded. Clothes manufacturers like Fosters have still failed to fulfil their obligations towards sustainable fashion and circular economy laws, while finance companies such as JV and Mercer-Pale continued to maintain investments in companies that have yet to achieve 100% renewable status. These companies have also been accused of achieving net zero only by sending their emissions offshore.
At a time when many Edinburgh residents in low-lying areas are having to face ruinous repair costs, the city's richer residents have moved to secure high-altitude accommodation, while existing tenants in such buildings have found themselves mysteriously evicted.
Carola struggled to control their breathing while reading this. It was the same old story. The corporations caused misery for everyone and, to repair the misery, everyone else had to pay. This had been their story for 30 years. Anger, disillusionment. They didn't know what they were meant to do. Sure, they’d been on some climate marches when they were a teenager. Done some student politics. Yet, there had always been a clear dividing line between protests, anger and the power to change things.
Then their eyes stumbled across something. It was an inauspicious poster. “Citizens United. Join Climate Groups, Trade Unions and Charities as we look at solutions to the Edinburgh Flooding Crisis.” Carola decided it was time to do something.
They enlisted five of their friends to come to the meeting, instead of spending evenings in each other's flats complaining about the world as usual. On social media, they wrote about the event. This was the first thing they had written, not just reposted, in years.
Thousands poured into St Andrews Square. They say Edinburgh is the world's biggest village; everyone knows everyone. Lots of people there Carola knew vaguely from work or were friends of friends, half of the people there Carola vaguely recognized. Most of them could never have imagined themselves as activists or protestors until then. People were angry!
They were split into smaller groups to come up with solutions. They knew exactly what they could do with all the money being used on rebuilding the streets and repairing the buildings. They agreed that the companies who had caused these effects with their outdated business models should foot the bill. This had been done in London, Chicago, and Cairo. They could double the city's environmental, health and education budgets if they weren’t paying for these repairs. But what were they meant to do about the flooding? It would keep happening, they needed to be able to use the city centre safely. Edinburgh could lose all of what made it. Then someone said something brave, radical but needed. “We have to put the Loch back in!”
2110
The Loch had been back for fifty years now. The pressure from campaigners and our passive resistance movement had finally forced the council to change their minds. When the idea was announced, ten thousand people had taken sleeping bags and occupied the council chambers for three weeks. The council, unable to carry on their usual business, had been forced to give in to their pleas. This was the only way that it could have been done. Now the three lochs of Edinburgh were able to absorb the effects of flooding and erratic weather caused by climate breakdown. People Power. Thank God they didn’t have to deal with the council anymore.
2070
3-year-old Boy killed by a car.
Warning of overcrowding on roads.
Campaigners call for a switch to active travel.
The initial bridges over the loch had been built purely for cars and railways. There were few walking routes around the loch's perimeters. Public transport in the city hadn't been given the budget to deal with the changes. It was becoming increasingly difficult for most people to get around the city.
Carola was 45. A bold-looking person, they were fearlessly non-conforming. They felt secure experimenting with clothing and makeup. They had recently made curtains for their flat out of recycled plastic bottles.
Carola was now on the leadership group of the Climate Survive & Thrive Group (CSTG) which had evolved from the water protests. They had successfully shamed EelTech into ceasing to pump sewage into Edinburgh’s waterways.
Now they switched their focus to transport.
They had formed their own Citizens’ Assembly from across different groups in the city. The manifesto they made called for new footbridges, a new metro train system and radical reshaping of town planning in favour of pedestrians instead of cars.
Imagine a pond. The pond is brimming with life, and each molecule of water has a common goal. There is a sense of being and understanding with each other. They know and understand each other so well that they no longer have to discuss what they are doing with each other. The bubbles of water simply are. That was what we the people, the dispossessed, were then. There is a stone that has landed in the water. The stone's weight creates conflict with the rest of the water. It wants to sink to the bottom. It has to readjust the balance and level of the rest of the water to suit it. Now imagine someone has decided that the stone has now been placed in control of aqua-affairs and is allowed to constantly adjust the water, make it unrecognisable, worsen its biodiversity, and kill the reefs. The Stone’s interests would now become solely what matters. This is the interest of the exploitative few, and we can’t question them. We are told their way helps us too. We must comply with their destructive system.
But then you realise that the stone is no match for the water. There is far more water than rock.
No one who decided things was listening. It wasn’t in their interests. So Carola changed who decided things.
They asked ”What if we told them we’re deciding things now?”
That was it. The rallying cry: “WE DECIDE NOW!”
CSTG stopped paying taxes, held massive protests, and refused to recognize the justice system that had locked up climate protestors while ignoring bankers and tax evaders.
This was about reclaiming the city. The central goal was to get Edinburgh's citizens to sign up to the authority of Citizens’ Assemblies. Instead of the council. Mass sign-up drives across Edinburgh Districts, there would be live-streamed participatory people's assemblies. Someone set up an illegal livestream on the giant screen in Holyrood Park. In the video, scientists, protestors, and ordinary citizens talked about all the ways the council and government had failed the city's climate. The authorities fought back, sending letters through people's doors telling them they could be arrested if they signed over to the assembly, spreading misinformation about the foreign links of Carola and other leaders. Police were sent to disrupt rallies and sign-up drives.
Still, by the end of the year, 200,000 people had recognized the CSTG assembly in place of the council. In comparison, only 100,000 had voted in the last council elections. Instead of negotiation and dialogue, the council pushed back even harder, but then something happened. At a rally where 30,000 people had marched, some police started to lay down their arms and stand with the protestors. This ripple effect continued around the square until the police officers who continued to clutch their weapons were barely enough to patrol a children's birthday party, let alone a mass popular movement. The next day the post officers refused to deliver, police officers were now on strike, and some of the more sympathetic councillors announced their support. By the end of the week, the city was at a standstill: the council could no longer exert any control or fear. In the middle of the night, they left. Someone had tipped off CSTG and by the next morning, Carola was in the council office putting into action every single point of their manifesto.
2110
Now every day, 100 citizens picked at random would gather in the council chambers to discuss Edinburgh’s most important issues. They scrutinised the city's budget. In the middle of the room was a gigantic board showing the exact emissions that Edinburgh put into and took out of the atmosphere. They hadn’t gone beyond their means for a single day in the past 30 years. Edinburgh was an internationally renowned hub of public transport, 15-minute neighbourhoods, and circular production.
When Carola looked at the young people of today they saw engaged, creative people aware of the world around them. For every car, Carola could see 3 trains and 10 walkers. Edinburgh was also now a melting pot of the world's cultures. They had a particularly high level of Climate emigres: Bangladeshi, Micronesian, Dutch.
2085
No one can understand what it’s like to lose a home unless they’ve experienced it. Some residents of the Cook Islands and Kiribati had no choice but to leave their homes, at ever-increasing risk of being submerged. Grand international declarations were made by world leaders about the sadness and injustice of their plight. Promises were made for international relief funds, and funding to help fortify and rebuild the islands. Yet, they did next to nothing. A smattering of refugees were taken in, but not enough to deal with the coming masses who would have to at least temporarily leave island homes the world over.
British newspapers' headlines questioned why these refugees came to Britain when they could have gone to the African desert or the Middle East. The Daily Hail extolled the virtue of those landscapes the refugees could reach more easily, while failing to acknowledge the extreme heat that climate breakdown had heralded upon them.
In November, Carola and the assembly voted through a motion to take over long-term unoccupied properties which were being held solely for their market value. It was joyful requisitioning these places that had for so long been disused – half of the Royal Mile flats had fallen into disuse. Special arrangements were put in place to accommodate climate refugees.
The first to arrive were refugees from the Netherlands and Italy. Many of them had been forced to make way for the wealthier of their country now buying up the decreasing quantity of unflooded land in their countries. They seemed shell-shocked on arrival. It still had the power to shock – the fact that the world had time to act and was too slow. Some crucial tipping points had already been hit by the mid-2020s, and although there had been a rapid cut down in emissions over the next few decades, for some people it was just too late. The Edinburgh Assembly's benevolence was now praised in the news and by the government. Yet, that began to change when refugees began arriving from Asia and Oceania. Edinburgh was thriving on the exchange of cultures and mutual understanding of the climate crisis. Yet politicians from other areas declared that “Edinburgh is becoming too full.” Right-wing newspapers printed stories painting Edinburgh as riddled with crime and inter-cultural divisions, despite failing to send any journalists there. Even on so-called neutral news channels, stories were run asking whether it was reasonable for people to have been concerned that their towns and cities could become “another Edinburgh.”
Despite reports of its demise, Edinburgh was becoming one of the most exciting places to live in the world, thanks to the influx of new culture and voices.
UK government announces crackdown on Edinburgh Immigration Policy
City officials have been given warnings over their differences from the UK’s response to climate refugees. They have been ordered to stop admitting new refugees, claiming that Edinburgh is becoming dangerously full of immigrants.
They kept admitting refugees though. They ignored the angry letters and dared the government to follow through on their threats of cutting the city's funding if they didn’t step in line. Liverpool and Glasgow had started to emulate Edinburgh as well, seeing the benefits their policy had for helping their local economies and changing their cities for the better. Edinburgh was a threat now. The UK Government had been elected to office on a promise of cutting immigration. If people saw the success that mass immigration was having in these cities, then their whole electoral strategy would fall apart.
One evening, Carola looked out and saw 3 men on the street outside their window, looking very much like plain clothes police officers. They sent a message on the CSTG channel:
I think I'm about to be arrested
One of them spat on the ground, then Carola saw them enter their stairwell.
Please come and help now
They didn't even bother to ring Carola’s bell. They took it in turns to kick the door in. Carola panicked, nothing in their house could be used as a weapon. They purposely kept a house without sharp things, this was to try and put out of their mind their childhood in a crime-ridden street. But this brought all the memories back. Police at the door who felt they didn’t need to give an explanation, that they could just barge in. These people might even be Secret Service – none of Edinburgh’s police force were willing to do the government's bidding any more. The three men were in. Carola knew they’d done nothing wrong but if you’re expecting to be arrested, if you’re being told by three men that you’ve done something wrong then an unwanted part of their brain told Carola they must be guilty. Carola’s Edinburgh was the antithesis of this kind of masculine posturing and intimidation.
“Carola Jova- McDonald, you are under arrest for Treason to his Majesty's government.”
Treason? What loyalty did Carola have to the Patriarchal British State that they could be betraying? None.
Carola refused to answer any questions or confirm their name.
Carola had been facing away from the window but they could hear more and more voices.
One of the police officers looked out nervously at the crowd gathering outside.
“Is there a back entrance?” he asked. “No,” Carola lied.
Carola got up and started walking towards the door, they had no option but to grab hold of them and follow Carola out.
Coming outside, Carola was hit with a wall of noise. People jeered at the police officers. They carried banners with “Free Carola” and “Stand up for refugee rights” written on them. The van they were taking Carola to was 100 feet away, there were hundreds of people in their way and they were not about to move. They stood arm in arm covering the whole street, the officers couldn’t get through.
One of the officers spoke into a walkie-talkie “Mission B371 - we need local officers for backup.”
There was static and then a response “No chance,” “Absolutely not,” “No.” The street went wild with cheers and joy.
Carola was held in the exact same position, handcuffed for 3 hours. After the crowd had stopped singing songs, people began to tell their stories:
“My name is Jovosi. I am from Tahiti. I was a lawyer there before the Cyran Storm, when every house in my neighbourhood became uninhabitable. We had nowhere to go, no one told us what to do. I was completely lost until I heard about Edinburgh. I had to stow away and work my passage on boats to get here. I could see all over the world coastal devastation and unfairness. Now, thanks to Carola, I’ve made my home in Edinburgh, and opened a new shop. I can help fund the rebuilding of Tahiti now and I hope to go back someday.”
Loud applause followed every story of this kind.
Unable to use their hands, Carola whistled to get everyone's attention. They felt magnificent, loved, and themself today.
“The reason you’re all here today is not because of me. It’s because of an idea. We decided Edinburgh could be different. We decided we could come up with genuine solutions to the climate crisis. We decided we could give our city good transport, education and mental health treatment. We decided we would be welcoming and helpful to the refugees who have been so mistreated. We decided we would not stand by and fail the next generation. So that’s why you didn't stand by today. We live in a nation that is hostile to our ideals and compassion. Tomorrow we’ll hold another assembly…”
They glanced over at other leaders of CSTG, who nodded at Carola in assent. “It’ll be the biggest assembly ever. We will decide whether Edinburgh should continue to engage in this hostile state.”
During this speech, the officers had been trying to put a muffle around their mouth but more than 50 people were now dragging them back, holding them in place. The arresters had become the arrestees.
2110
It was 25 years since Edinburgh declared self-determination. They no longer followed UK laws. On the day they declared independence one million people from across the UK applied for citizenship. Carola often joked that they needed to build a second Edinburgh.
Carola picked up their walking stick and went outside for a walk. They walked by the lochside, and saw people taking a dip in the pristine waters. They saw people of all different appearances and identities enjoying themselves in the libraries and cafes. There were road signs in more than twenty languages. In the distance Carola could see the peaks of the Pentland hills; snow was settled on the top of those hills for the first time in decades. 40% of the city's land was covered by public parks. Students read books, people performed music, and children ran around joyfully playing sports. Edinburgh had a universal basic income and a housing policy that ensured no homelessness. New train lines were intricately blended with the city's design and bridges, and free travel for every resident could get them anywhere within 20 minutes.
Yet, there was still something bothering Carola. Edinburgh was the world's most sustainable city, it came top of every happiness index. There was no homelessness in the city, there weren’t even any prisons in the city. Here was a blueprint for what a city could be, how people could uplift each other, work together, make sacrifices for the common good.
Carola was eighty-five years old and they hadn’t saved the world. Was it too late now? They had stayed in this bubble because this was where they found like-minded people. They had dreamed of being able to go up to sceptical people and change their minds, to get people to face up to poisonous elements all over the world and take them down. But they hadn’t. Sea levels had still risen dramatically, millions had lost their homes, and increasingly extreme weather events still killed thousands every year. What good was one relatively small city swimming against this tide?
Carola could barely sleep that night. They were running out of time and Carola didn’t have the answer. It was all too late, there had been too much to do…
2025
Carola woke up, they felt younger again. Surely this was just an illusion? But then they looked down at their body. They were young, and Carola felt energy they hadn’t felt in so long. And suddenly they knew that this was the state they’d been in the whole time. They’d seen what the future could look like, but now it was up to Carola. Now Carola knew exactly what they needed to do for themself, for the world.