The Emergency Brake: Nationalising and Dismantling the Fossil Fuel Industry in the Global North
Report: Climate Vanguard, 31 October 2022
Executive Summary
Our planetary life-support systems are crumbling. What is to be done? Stopping climate breakdown requires an emergency response. The first step is to rapidly phase out fossil fuels, which account for 89% of planet-heating emissions. To phase out fossil fuel production, the fossil fuel industry must first be nationalised. Once under democratic public control, the industry can be rapidly dismantled according to a 1.5°C heating pathway.
Key messages:
1.5°C heating is a red line for climate. Beyond 1.5°C, the risk of runaway climate breakdown soars.
Limiting heating to 1.5°C demands unprecedented transformation. We have no time to spare. According to principles of justice and capacity, countries in the global North must phase out fossil fuel production by 2034 at the latest. Countries in the global South must phase out fossil fuel production by 2044 at the latest.
The fossil fuel industry is structurally incapable of managing the transition. The industry is defined by a history of climate denial and greenwash. Although heating is already at 1.2°C, the 20 largest oil and gas companies are investing $932 billion in new fossil fuel projects by 2030, rising to $1.5 trillion by 2040. In 2022 alone, 64,500 new oil and gas drills will be drilled, a 19% year-on-year increase.
The state is the only actor with the institutional capacity to manage the required phase out. States have historically nationalised large parts of the economy to protect the public interest, especially in times of emergency. Never before has there been a greater public interest than rapidly phasing out fossil fuels and preserving a livable planet.
Nationalisation and dismantling of the fossil fuel industry is possible via two pathways: legislation and central bank quantitative easing (QE). In the case study of the United Kingdom (UK), fossil fuel production can be phased out through a Parliamentary Act or through a Bank of England (BoE) QE program. These pathways will require the creation of novel government agencies, a rapid renewable rollout, degrowth of unnecessary energy consumption, a just transition for frontline communities and workers, and stewardship from a robust grassroots climate movement.
It would cost £296 billion to nationalise the fossil fuel industry in the UK.
This research was endorsed by twelve youth climate champions from across the world, including Ayisha Siddiqa, Bibi Elberse, Dana Oyarzabal, Eric Njuguna, Laura Verónica Muñoz Aguilar, Nyombi Morris, Matilde Alvim, Michelin Sallata, Mikaela Schlesinger, Mitzi Jonelle Tan, Rosanna Pongracz, and Yusuf Baluch.